After a period of consumer uncertainty and reduced buyer activity in the first quarter of 2025, the Canadian housing market appears poised for a shift this fall. Improved affordability and increased inventory may encourage hesitant buyers to re-enter the market.
Average home prices across all property types are projected to decline by 4.5% by the end of 2025, potentially leading to a modest 2% increase in sales. In the Guelph area, the fourth quarter of 2024 reflected a buyer’s market, marked by high inventory and steady demand — a trend expected to continue through the remainder of this year. Compared to the same period last year, market conditions have remained stable, with ample listings giving buyers more choice and negotiating leverage. Homes continue to spend more time on the market, signaling a balanced yet cautious environment for both buyers and sellers.
If the real estate market does start to pick up this fall, then August was the calm before the storm. August sales for Guelph (123), were down an astonishing 41% year over year. The average sale price ($799,244) dipped below the $800K level for the first time in recent memory and the average time on market increased 26% from Augst 2024 to 40 days. The number of listings that were terminated without being sold increased 143% year over year, yet sellers received 97.8% of asking price on average. Going into September, there are already 541 active listings which represents 4.3 months worth of inventory.
An influx of new listings in September will give buyers even more selection this fall and sellers will need to manage their expectations when it comes to selling price in order to be competitive. The question remains however, will falling prices and increased inventory entice buyers back to the market? Time will tell.
