Despite the threat of tariffs and other economic challenges, I anticipate a rebound in the Guelph housing market for 2025. Lower mortgage rates and recent changes to mortgage rules in 2024 should unlock demand from homebuyers who were previously priced out. However, these buyers may face longer loan terms, higher interest costs over the life of the loan, and larger down payments as home prices continue to rise.
Millennials, many of whom are first-time homebuyers, are currently driving demand. As remote work declines, this group is likely to prioritize proximity to their jobs, leading to increased sales activity in larger urban centers. Repeat buyers are also expected to return to the real estate market, including those looking to upgrade to better homes as mortgage rates decrease. Homeowners who purchased during the pandemic and now face mortgage renewals between 2025 and 2027 may reassess their housing needs, which will contribute to renewed sales activity.
Locally, we seem to be experiencing the beginnings of a hot spring market. Many detached homes are attracting multiple offers and selling slightly over asking price while sales in the condo market are not quite as brisk. January saw only 95 sales MLS sales for Guelph and the average sale price was $775,000. The average time on market was 36 days and sellers received 98.8% of asking price on average. Going into February, there are 257 active listings which is not much inventory for a market that’s heating up for a spring run.
While it took time for the market to really get going in January, I expect February to hit the ground running. Buyers can expect to compete for many listings but sales should still hover around asking for the most part.
